Putin's Miscalculations
Putin's Miscalculations
And the contagiousness of courage
Pleasant Surprises, Under the Circumstances
Turns out it’s difficult to write newsletters about such a fast-moving event, so I’ll just say up front: As of this writing, Kyiv still stands. Ukraine has thus far done much better than anticipated at resisting the Russian invasion — and, conversely, Russia’s invasion has been much more incompetent than anticipated. If it weren’t such a human tragedy, Russia’s bumbling inadequacies might even be funny. Supply lines are non-existent. Russian tanks are running out of gas on Ukrainian streets, at which point they get heckled (and captured) by Ukrainians. But they’re still killing civilians, after all, in a war of pure territorial aggression; so there’s not much to laugh about.
But as I said, Ukraine has fared better than anticipated. By now we would’ve expected Ukraine to be a blackhole of communication, but that clearly hasn’t happened. The internet is still functional enough that Ukrainians are documenting Russian military failures in real time on social media. We would’ve expected major cities, including the capital Kyiv, to have fallen under Russian control. They haven’t. And the longer this drags on, the better the chances that the resistance holds.
There are reports this morning, however, that Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv is facing indiscriminate shelling from Russian forces; an indication that Russia is becoming increasingly desperate (and therefore ruthless) in their effort to topple the country.
The international response to the Russian invasion, I’ll admit, has been much more impressive than I anticipated. I’d assumed the various economic entanglements around Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, coupled with the general non-confrontational disposition of European leaders generally, would lead to a softer ineffectual response. As it happens, not at all. Germany canceled the activation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which had been slated to be a major supplier of Russian gas to Germany. The U.S. and European allies agreed to ban important Russian institutions from the global financial system, crippling the Russian stock market and the value of the ruble. The European Union has closed its airspace to all Russian aircraft. NATO countries have increased their military support to Ukraine, including the provision of fighter jets.
[One thing that admittedly makes me nervous is the idea that Putin sees these severe economic sanctions as an act of war and responds accordingly by attacking NATO countries, triggering Article 5 provisions and drawing western Europe and the United States into a war on the European continent, essentially triggering WWIII.]
Odds are this still all ends in tears, but thus far this has been a grievous miscalculation by Vladimir Putin. Everything he had apparently been banking on has turned out to be 180 degrees incorrect. He thought NATO would blink. NATO is more united and determined than it has been in years. He thought the European response would be disorganized and ineffectual. It has been united and forceful. He thought Ukrainians would roll over and allow the Russian military to occupy their country without much resistance. That decidedly has not happened.
That leaves Putin with limited options, none of which are, by his terms, pleasant. So-called peace talks are scheduled to begin today, but Ukraine has no incentive at this point to accept any terms other than complete Russian retreat. As such, Putin can either put more effort into crushing Ukraine in hopes of ruling over the rubble (which he seems to be doing, as of this writing) and face further international condemnation and economic collapse — not to mention continued and prolonged Ukrainian resistance — or he can retreat in shame, having collapsed the Russian economy for the sake of an ill-considered war of expansionist aggression.
As I said, I’m surprised this has gone as well for Ukraine and Europe as it has, and equally surprised how poorly it’s gone for Russia. And I’m just some schmuck on the internet — if I’m surprised at the state of things, imagine how surprised Vladimir Putin must be.
He Wasn’t Supposed to be Here
The main catalyst for European and broadly western unity, as well as Ukrainian defiance, in the face of Russian aggression has been, I believe, the extraordinarily honorable and brave actions of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Before last week, I only knew two things about the man — he was Jewish, which is an accomplishment in itself given Ukraine’s historical treatment of Jews; and he was an actor before getting into politics. (I have since learned that he is also the Ukrainian voice of Paddington Bear, and he won the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the Stars in 2006.)
But over the last few days he has been publicly and forcefully defying Putin; while refusing offers to flee Kyiv, choosing instead of stay behind to reassure and encourage his people; and by-god that’s good enough for me.
There’s a line in Shakespeare’s play Twelfth Night that says “Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.” Near as I can tell, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has had greatness thrust upon him and he is shouldering that obligation in a manner that is quickly turning him into a legend. It’s bravery and honor we simply haven’t seen from a national leader in our lifetimes. He could have fled Kyiv and no one would have blamed him. He could’ve backed down in the face of a larger, more powerful military and no one would have been surprised. “What do you expect? He’s a former actor, and he’s going up against Vladimir friggin’ Putin.”
But instead he has turned down offers to leave Kyiv, saying “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.” He has achieved the impressive feat of making himself more of a problem for Putin if he were dead. Putin has killed people over less, and he had every incentive before this started to see Zelenskyy in the ground. But now Zelenskyy has turned himself into a international folk hero. His death at this point would turn him into a martyr for the cause.
Courage is, as they say, contagious. And I think it’s Zelenskyy’s courage that has helped make opposition to Russia as widespread, intense, and unified as it is. If this former actor can meet the moment and stay in his capital while it’s under siege — with a target on his back and a price on his head — and if heretofore Ukrainian civilians can take up arms against Russian invaders, then we can certainly freeze Russian bank assets and deny them access to the energy commodities market.
The international community is as united and determined as I’ve ever seen it — and this includes in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 — and it all stems from one man, who no one would fault for shrinking from the moment, standing up and saying “no.”
The odds are still against him, as — in spite of their own incompetence — the Russian military simply outmatches Ukraine’s; but the entire free world is at Zelenskyy’s back. God bless and Godspeed, sir.
These Friggin’ People, cont.’d
Georgia representative and general embarrassment Marjorie Taylor-Greene addressed a white nationalist conference on Friday evening, the day before she addressed the formerly much more reputable Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday.
The so-called America First Political Action Conference was founded by this absolute putz named Nick Fuentes — who may have overtaken Ted Cruz for the most punchable face in America. To give you an idea of the sort of garbage Nick Fuentes believes, here are some clips from his introduction of Marjorie Taylor-Greene:
If you have trouble stomaching this schmuck’s voice, as I do, here are the highlights:
The United States government has become the evil empire in the world. The United States government has become the “Great Satan” that many have called it. What even is our main export? We have our embassies and consulates all across the world, they wave the flag of, what? Transexuals, Black Lives Matter, the gay pride flag. Y’know, being an American used to mean something, and now it means all this crap. And it’s a shame. […] And now they’re going on about Russia, and ‘Vladimir Putin is Hitler’ and they say that’s not a good thing … [laughs] I shouldn’t have said that.
They say about America, they say “diversity is our strength.” And I look at China, and I look at Russia, can we give a round of applause for Russia? [crowd starts chanting “Putin! Putin! Putin!”]
So we have this clown saying worse things about America than you’d hear at any leftiest of the left communist rally, saying that being American is crap, literally rooting for America’s enemies.
And likely the second-most influential Republican, after Donald Trump, addressed this crowd. At first, Greene tried to play the “Nick Fuentes? Never heard of him” card:
“I do not know Nick Fuentes, I’ve never heard him speak, I’ve never seen a video, I don’t know what his views are, so I’m not aligned with anything that may be controversial.”
Now, as a member of congress, Greene has staff members whose entire job it is to vet speaking engagements for their bosses. The idea that Greene has never heard Nick Fuentes speak is, simply, implausible. So she’s either utterly incompetent, or she’s lying. And as dumb as I think she is, I don’t think she’s that dumb. She’s just lying, as evidenced by her subsequent playing of the Jesus card:
Now I’m not a biblical scholar by any means, but I’m reasonably certain that while Jesus is believed to have associated with sinners, he did not do so as a means of justifying their sin. Which is to say, he did not associate with prostitutes and excuse their prostitution. He did so as a means to get them to stop being prostitutes.
You don’t get to claim to be following the example of Jesus by addressing a bunch of racists and then say nothing against racism. Unless you’re refuting that racism — which she isn’t — then you’re just indulging that racism in order to get votes; and that’s shameful.
But as I’ve been saying for a while now, the voters want what they want. Marjorie Taylor-Greene is facing a primary challenge in her district from a replacement-level Republican. Her constituents could get precisely the same legislative representation from him. But if and when she wins the primary, we can only assume it’s because her constituents, and the House Republican caucus, feel adequately and appropriately represented by her racism-indulging, anti-Semitic winking form of populism. We should adjust our opinions accordingly.
Occasional Trivia
Answer from last time:
Category: Rap Battles
Clue: Not big fans of Elvis or John Wayne, this rap group urged its listeners to Fight the Power in 1989.
Public Enemy
Today’s clue:
Category: Rivers
Clue: Appropriately, this river forms a 500-mile boundary between the Republic of it and the Democratic Republic of it.
Dispatches from the Homefront
One week shy of being two full years, today my office is back to full capacity with no COVID restrictions. I’d almost forgotten what it was like. I’d read that the survivors of the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic never talked about it after it ended, and I thought that was a little strange. How could you just not talk about such a traumatic global event, y’know? But now having lived through a global pandemic, uh, I kinda get it.